North Korean ballistic missiles used by Russia in the Ukraine war are now capable of landing within 100 meters (yards) of their targets, causing serious concern to defenders and highlighting the benefits to North Korea of its weapons being tested on the battlefield.
Reuters quoted two senior Ukrainian sources as saying that all of the more than 20 North Korean missiles that hit Ukraine over the past several weeks showed “a marked improvement in the precision” compared with earlier in the war when the missiles had an accuracy of 1 kilometer to 3 kilometers.
In February 2024, Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin told media that of the 24 North Korean missiles that Russia fired at two Ukrainian military targets over several weeks, only two had been “relatively accurate.”
The remarkable improved accuracy “should come as no surprise,” said Chun In-bum, a retired lieutenant general who served as commander of the South Korean Special Warfare Command.
“This is a natural evolution of North Korean weapons in the Ukraine-Russia conflict,” Chun told Radio Free Asia. “Whether intentional or not, North Korean weapons will get better.”
“Testing a few rounds for developing a weapon and being able to shoot en masse in battlefield conditions are nowhere close,” he said.
KN-23 ballistic missiles
Russia reportedly began deploying North Korean short-range ballistic missiles at the end of 2023. About 100 North Korean missiles have been fired in Ukraine, most of them the KN-23 version.
The KN-23, known in North Korea as Hwasong-11A, is a single-stage, solid-fueled ballistic missile with a range of about 450 kilometers, extendable to 690 kilometers (429 miles) with reduced payload. It was first flight tested in May 2019.
Compared with Russia’s similar Iskander-M missile, the KN-23 has a longer range and can carry a heavier warhead.
The first known instance of KN-23 being fired in Ukraine was on Dec. 30, 2023, and the deployment of North Korean missiles drew strong condemnation from the U.S., Britain and South Korea.
“The recent reports of increased accuracy of North Korean short-range ballistic missiles, including the KN-23 system, highly likely indicates that North Korea is using the battlefield in Ukraine to test its technology in combat,” said Alexander Lord, lead Europe-Eurasia analyst at Sibylline, a U.K.-based geopolitical risk consultancy.
“Forensic analysis of missile debris remains inconclusive, but it remains possible that improvements to the missiles' navigation systems, or improvements to steering mechanisms to increase maneuverability, have improved the missiles' accuracy,” Lord told RFA.
“The improvement to the missile’s accuracy could also reflect growing technological assistance from Russia, with whom North Korea has signed a ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’ in 2024,” the analyst added.
Technology transfer
Military ties between the two countries have been deepening over the last couple of years. North Korea is believed to have provided a large amount of ammunition alongside thousands of troops to assist Russia in the war in Ukraine.
“North Korean munitions are widely used by the Russians and it is in the best interests of the Russians for the North Korean weapons and ammunition to perform better,” said Chun In-bum.
“Therefore the Russians will provide every available assistance to make it better and this will impact the war.”
The extent of Russian technological assistance to Pyongyang remains unclear but, according to Sibylline’s Alexander Lord, it is highly likely that Moscow is willing to share elements of its own, non-nuclear, missile technology to ensure these missiles are more lethal and useful to Russia as the end-user on the battlefield in Ukraine.
“The enhancements of North Korean missile accuracy will facilitate Russia’s ability to continue launching high-intensity ballistic and cruise missile strikes across Ukraine at regular intervals for the foreseeable future to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses,” Lord said.
The head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, told the War Zone news site in January that North Korea planned to send 150 more ballistic missiles to Russia in 2025, the same as in 2024.
“This, together with the ground forces currently present in Kursk Oblast, represents a notable military commitment to the war,” said Lord, noting that North Korea “stands to gain a considerable amount of technological and military experience by participating in this war, which will enhance North Korea’s own conventional military forces on the Korean peninsula.”
South Korea’s Chun said that in his opinion, the improvements of the North Korean missiles “unfortunately signal a deeper involvement” by Pyongyang in the Ukrainian war.
“That likely means more weapons for Russia and probably more soldiers,” he said.
Edited by Mike Firn.