KUALA LUMPUR - Malaysia will take over as the 2025 chair of ASEAN amid regional expectations that it will restore the Southeast Asian bloc’s relevance during a time of global ferment, analysts said.
Kuala Lumpur may well succeed but for one sticking point – questions about its neutrality amid big-power rivalry.
“Inclusivity and Sustainability,” Malaysia’s theme for its year-long chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, points to a focus on the region’s priorities, said Elina Noor, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“There are certainly expectations for Malaysia’s ASEAN chairmanship, but it will be up to Malaysia to live up to those expectations in pushing through with its agenda together with all the other [nine] member-states,” she told RFA affiliate BenarNews.
Additionally, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has indicated he “intends for ASEAN to reclaim its independent agency, to diversify its strategic engagement, and to not be pulled in any one direction among major powers,” she said.
Anwar’s perceived tilt towards China and Russia versus the United States notwithstanding, he has stressed ASEAN collaboration in a polarized world.
“As global tensions intensify – from strategic competition to climate disruption – ASEAN’s collaborative spirit has never been more crucial,” the PM wrote in a column published Dec. 16 on Project Syndicate, a website that publishes global commentary.
“The choice is stark: ASEAN must move forward in unity or face the divisive forces gathering momentum across Asia and beyond,” he said.
As ASEAN chair, Anwar will also define Malaysia’s own role as a middle power, analysts said.
Explanations vary on what constitutes a middle power, but it broadly refers to states that are not superpowers yet have considerable influence on international relations.
Anwar’s diplomatic engagements, including visits to South America for the Asia Pacific economic forum APEC and the G20 summit reflect Malaysia’s efforts to elevate its own global standing and its plans for ASEAN in 2025, said Yanitha Meena Louis, an analyst at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia.
He has been consistently focussing “on ASEAN and ASEAN mechanisms and the aim to make it more fit for mobilizing efforts within the Global South,” Yanitha told BenarNews.
“It will be a defining year for ASEAN in the sense that we will be able to see where ASEAN stands and hopes to see itself in the Global South, a strategic configuration of growing consequence,” Yanitha said.
Anwar has reiterated that Malaysia has not shifted alliances eastward and remains non-aligned, but some have questioned his several trips to Beijing since becoming PM and his invitation to Russian President Vladimir Putin to attend the 2025 ASEAN Summit.
Hazree Mohd Turee, managing director of advisory firm Bower Group Asia, also noted that Malaysia and two other ASEAN member-states, Indonesia and Thailand, partnering with the China- and Russia-led BRICS grouping may give the impression the Southeast Asian bloc is taking sides.
BRICS is an economic grouping that includes Brazil, Russia, India and China and South Africa.
“Even though Anwar talks about neutrality, the perception is otherwise,” Hazree told RFA affiliate BenarNews.
“Singapore and the Philippines [ASEAN members], for example, have strong ties with the U.S. … and may find it uncomfortable,” Hazee added.
It is imperative for Anwar to ensure that ASEAN is not only neutral, but seen as being so, said Southeast Asia expert Matthijs van den Broek.
For example, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose massive tariffs on nations he believes are trying to weaken the U.S. dollar. His comments came after speculation that BRICS planned its own currency.
“Both China and the U.S. are among ASEAN’s top foreign trading and investment partners [respectively. … Malaysia as chair will have to step up its diplomatic efforts to not alienate either.”
South China Sea and Myanmar
Meanwhile, Malaysia’s approach to the South China Sea dispute, where several ASEAN countries have overlapping claims, will test its diplomatic finesse, analysts noted.
Unlike the Philippines, Malaysia has not adopted a hardline stance against China, and this could help or hinder its South China Sea work, they added.
“Malaysia could provide the opportunities and platforms for more engagement between ASEAN members and China to resolve the Code of Conduct negotiations,” Abdul Rahman Yaacob of the Australian think-tank, the Lowy Institute, told BenarNews.
“[But] China may not be willing to accept Malaysia as a mediator as Beijing prefers to engage Manila directly,” he said, adding that similarly, Philippines and Vietnam may look towards the United States for help in disputes over the contested waterway.
In relation to another regional conflict, the civil war in ASEAN member-state Myanmar, some observers have questioned Anwar’s recently appointing Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is perceived as being pro-military, an ASEAN informal adviser.
RELATED STORIES
Ineffectual Laos shows ASEAN’s limits on Myanmar conflict
Malaysia’s Anwar calls for a united ASEAN amid rising ‘global tensions’
ASEAN faces tests in tackling Myanmar war, South China Sea tensions
Anwar has also suggested creating an advisory group of former ASEAN leaders to address the Myanmar situation.
Since the February 2021 military coup, nearly 6,000 people have been killed, and over 21,000 remain in detention, many held incommunicado, according to U.N. experts.
For Alice Ba, University of Delaware political science professor, Thaksin’s appointment is a possible signal that Malaysia is looking to break the deadlock on Myanmar.
“There remain significant divisions within ASEAN on how to engage with the Tatmadaw [Myanmar’s junta], but these moves suggest that the desire to move beyond the current impasse might outweigh those concerns,” she told BenarNews.
However, Kamarulnizam Abdullah, a Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia professor, said the Thaksin appointment was not a good move.
“His comments on Thaksin’s appointment have been met with cynicism both regionally and domestically,” Kamarulnizam told BenarNews.
“Anwar needs to play his cards right.”
BenarNews is an RFA-affiliated online news organization.